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Growth Projections

 
 
This page contains information on current and projected  population figures for the Whangarei District which are contained in the 2006 Census.
Updated: 26/05/2011 4:05 p.m.
 

Growth projections - 30/50

The Whangarei District has experienced significant growth over the period 2001 to 2007. Although growth is slowing in line with global and national trends, future growth for the district is projected to continue and in some parts of the district, particularly the Marsden Point/ Ruakaka area, has the potential to be substantial.

Population change

  • the current population of the Whangarei District is 74,430 (Census 2006).
  • the population increased by 20% between 1986 and 2006, reaching the current population of 74,430 from 61,929 in 1986.
  • growth between 1986 and 1991 was 0.44%, increasing to 7.22% between 1991 and 1996.
  • growth between 1996 and 2001 was 2.12%, increasing to 9.35% between 2001 and 2006.
  • the average growth rate for the last 20 years was 1.01% per annum.
  • the national growth rate for the last 20 years was 1.17% per annum.

Graph of Population Growth in the Whangarei District 1986 - 2006.

  •  the population of the Whangarei District is projected to increase from 74,430 in 2006 to 109,235 in 2041, and to 129,678 in 2061. This represents an average annual increase of 1.35% or 1,004 additional people per annum, and a total increase in population of 55,248.

 

 Census  Projected
 1986 1991 1996 2001  2006 2011 2021 2031 2041  2051 2061
 61,929  62,202 66,666 68,067 74,430 80,799 91,515  100,530 109,235 119,901 129,678

 Graph of Whangarei District Population Projections.

Comparison of annual growth rates

  1986-2006 2006-2061
Whangarei 1.01% 1.35%
Auckland 2.84% 1.88%
New Zealand 1.17% 0.70%

Population structure

  • Currently, the median age is 38.4 years for people in the Whangarei District. For New Zealand as a whole, the median age is 35.9 years. The median age is projected to be 41.5 years in the year 2041, and could be 50.1 years in the year 2061. 

Graph of the Population Pyramid 2006 showing the age median.

Graph of the 2041 Population Pyramid showing the age median. Graph of the 2061 Population Pyramid showing the age median.

  • Currently 14.9% of people in the Whangarei District are aged 65 years and over. In the year 2041, this could increase to 25.76%, and to 28.83% in 2061.
  • At present, 22.8% of people are aged less than 15 years of age in the Whangarei District. In the year 2041, this could reduce to 18.68%, and again in 2061 to 17.35%.
  • There is a continuing imbalance in the population pyramid due to an increasingly aging population and an on-going shortage of population in the 20-35 age cohorts. This is seen as a critical issue for the District.
  • Increased employment, training and educational opportunities for 20 to 35 years olds could alter this imbalance.

Household change

  • The current number of residential dwellings in the Whangarei District is 32,202 (Census 2006), of which 27,993 are occupied, and the remaining 13% (4,209 dwellings) are unoccupied (ie they are holiday homes).
  • The number of occupied dwellings increased by 30.14% between 1986 and 2006, reaching the current number of occupied dwellings of 27,993 from 21,510 in 1986.
  • Growth between 1986 and 1991 was 0.53%, increasing to 10.41% between 1991 and 1996.
  • Growth between 1996 and 2001 was 6.76%, increasing to 9.83% between 2001 and 2006.
  • The average growth rate for the last 20 years was 1.51% per annum.

Graph showing the Occupied Dwelling Growth in the Whangarei District 1986 - 2006.

  • The number of occupied dwellings in the Whangarei District is projected to increase from 27,993 in 2006 to 41,704 in 2041, and to 49,785 in 2061. This represents an average annual increase of around 1.42% or 400 additional dwellings per annum.

 Census     Projected
1986  1991  1996  2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061
21,510 21,624  23,874  25,488 27,993 30,647 34,939 38,381 41,704 45,958 49,785

Graph of Whangarei District Occupied Dwelling Projections 2006 - 2061.

  • Currently there are 2.66 people per occupied dwelling. The 2031 and 2061 projections are based on an average of 2.6 people per occupied dwelling.
  • 34% of coastal dwellings are unoccupied for part of the year (ie holiday homes). Over half of the dwellings in Oakura, Waipu Cove – Langs Beach, Matapouri and Pataua are unoccupied.

Marsden Point/Ruakaka population change

  • The population of the Marsden Point/Ruakaka area (defined by the Marsden Point/ Ruakaka Structure Plan) is 3,114 (Census 2006).
  • The population increased by 17.20% between 1986 and 2006, reaching the current population of 3,114 from 2,657 in 1986. Growth between 1986 and 1991 was 5.68%, degreasing to 2.57% in 1991 and 1996. Growth between 1996 and 2001 was -1.87%, and then increasing to 10.90% between 2001 and 2006.
  • The average growth rate for the last 20 years was 0.86% per annum.

Graph of the Marsden Point - Ruakaka Population Growth 1986 - 2006.

  • At current growth rates, the population of Marsden Point/Ruakaka is projected to increase from 3,114 in 2006 to 6,431 in 2041, and to 7,634 in 2061. This represents an annual increase of 2.64% or 82 additional people per annum.

Census Projected
1986 1991 1996  2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061
2,657 2,808  2,883  2,829 3,114 3,823 5,330 6,270 6,650 7,059 7,634

  • Allowing for the considerable development potential in the Marsden Point/Ruakaka area and the low initial population, a high growth scenario has been developed in the WDC Growth Model as an alternative projection. This puts the projected increase in population to 12,178 in 2041, and to 14,930 in 2061, and an annual increase of 6.90%, an additional 214 people per annum, and 11,816 additional people in total.

Graph of the Marsden Point - Ruakaka Population Projections 2006 - 2016.

Marsden Point/Ruakaka household change

  • The current number of residential dwellings in the Marsden Point/Ruakaka area is 1,614 (Census 2006), of which 1,206 are occupied, and the remaining 25% (408 dwellings) are unoccupied (ie holiday homes).
  • The number of dwellings increased by 28.43% between 1986 and 2006, reaching the current number of occupied dwellings of 1,206 from 939 in 1986. Growth between 1986 and 1991 was 4.79%, increasing slightly to 4.88% between 1991 and 1996. Growth between 1996 and 2001 was 5.81%, increasing to 10.44% between 2001 and 2006.
  • The average growth rate for the last 20 years was 1.42% per annum.

Graph of the Marsden Point - Ruakaka Occupied Dwelling Growth 1986 - 2006.

  • The number of residential dwellings in the Marsden Point/Ruakaka area is projected to increase from 1,206 in 2006 to 2,564 in 2041, and to 3,061 in 2061. This represents an average annual increase of around 2.80% or 34 additional dwellings per annum.

 Census     Projected
1986  1991  1996  2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061
939  984  1,032  1,092 1,206 1,453 2,148  2,360 2,564 2,825 3,061

  • Allowing for the considerable development potential in the Marsden Point/Ruakaka area and the low present population, a high growth scenario has been developed in the WDC Growth Model as an alternative projection. This puts the projected increase in dwellings to 4,684 in 2041, and to 7,178 in 2061, an annual increase of 9.00%, an additional 109 dwellings per annum, and 4,330 additional dwellings in total.

Graph of the Marsden Point - Ruakaka Occupied Dwelling Projections 2006 - 2016.

The Growth Strategy adopts the high growth scenario for Marsden Point/Ruakaka. This is in recognition of the unusual, unrealised development potential in the area, based upon the deep water port and refinery at Marsden Point, and the considerable adjacent flat land available for industrial, commercial and residential use.

This, together with improved transport links to Auckland (including the proposed rail link) has the potential to result in substantial development in the future. The timing of this development depends on a range of factors, but for the purposes of the Growth Strategy a population of 15,000 by 2061 has been projected for the area as a reasonable and realistic possibility.

More comprehensive demographic and economic analysis will be undertaken during 2009, including detailed examination of economic drivers of development and the demographic implications of this development, together with refined projections for both economic and population growth.

The projections presented above are intended to provide an outline of future growth in the district and at Marsden Point/Ruakaka around which more in-depth analysis can be structured. They also provide a base line upon which the ‘alternative futures’ for the district have been developed.

 


 

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